Mexico faces toughest attacking assignment against Sweden

Two games down, one to go for Mexico.

With only one group-stage match left against Sweden, El Tri is in an enviable position after collecting six points. Following the stunning 1-0 victory over the Germans, and the recent 2-1 win against South Korea, the Group F leader will be heading into Wednesday’s game with a daunting amount of momentum. In fact, many football fans are beginning to see Mexico as a potential dark horse in the tournament.

However, Mexico manager Juan Carlos Osorio is staying grounded.

“Every match, we insist on being fully focused and not losing that message,” he said after the win over South Korea. “We have received a lot of praise, but remain focused nonetheless.”

Defender Miguel Layun voiced similar thoughts.

“We’ve got to be aware that this game against Sweden is going to be really important for us to look for qualification in the round of 16,” said the 30-year-old. “We have to keep the team focused on what we want to achieve.”

With only one game left for each side, all four teams in Group F can still advance to the knockout stage. As cruel as this may be for an undefeated Mexico – especially after beating the defending champions – the squad still has plenty to prove before securing an invitation to the next round.

Looking ahead to the concluding group-stage match, Mexico’s attack will need to be proactive against Sweden’s rigid and organised defence. In an expected 4-4-2 formation, the Swedes will likely aim to frustrate El Tri by remaining compact and tight along the backline. It will be Mexico’s toughest attacking test of the group stage.

To make things more complicated, a question regarding potential rotations has now re-emerged. After only making one change in his last match, it’s difficult to predict whether Osorio will stick with the same XI, or attempt some of his infamous alterations.

On paper, a couple backup names stand out as potential starters.

(Photo courtesy: Getty Images)

Up front, it wouldn’t be surprising if Raul Jimenez replaces Javier Hernandez as the lone striker. Despite Hernandez’s well-known finishing abilities, Jimenez can provide more strength and height against a physical Swedish defense.

In the midfield, Marco Fabian could also earn his first World Cup start. Blessed with the ability to shoot accurately from distance, the Eintracht Frankfurt player will be crucial against a side aiming to sit back and absorb pressure. Depending on Osorio’s preference, Fabian could thrive in a three-man midfield or as a No. 10 in a 4-2-3-1 for Mexico. Either way, it would be wise for Osorio to give the 28-year-old some minutes.

No matter who plays, Mexico’s XI must be well aware of what’s at stake. A place in the round of 16 is up for grabs, and despite being widely viewed as a favourite and a threat, that berth isn’t guaranteed.

Mexico losing to Sweden on Wednesday would significantly complicate Osorio’s shot at World Cup glory. Coupled with an expected win for Germany over South Korea, El Tri would then likely be on the outside looking in for the round of 16.

To avoid unnecessary obstacles, Mexico will need to earn a win or draw against Sweden. With at least one more point attained, Mexico would then not only secure a place in the knockout round, but also the top spot in Group F, regardless of what happens in the Germany match.

Against an inferior side like Sweden, Osorio and his men should be able to clinch at least one point. Although a shocking win or draw for South Korea against Germany would be enough to push El Tri into the next stage, the chances of that happening are miniscule. Relying on a result like that is far too risky.

Fair or not, after two wins in the first two matches, Mexico still has plenty of work to do.