How the Dutch can stun the U.S. in World Cup final

The Netherlands has a gargantuan task on its hands.

While previous Women’s World Cups have seen their share of upsets – including China’s drubbing of Norway in the first match of the inaugural tourney and North Korea’s stalemate with the United States in 2007 – few pundits would sensibly select the Dutch to win against the defending champion Americans on Sunday.

Still, there’s a quartet of reasons that the Netherlands could pull off a shock upset in Lyon.

Ellis’ selection uncertainty

Megan Rapinoe missed the semifinal versus England with a hamstring worry, and while the attacker says she’ll be fit to play Sunday, U.S. manager Jill Ellis faces another selection issue. Christen Press, who started in Rapinoe’s stead, was excellent, chipping in with a goal and a resolute display in tracking back.

In fact, Press’ two-way play on the left side was a better overall performance than any of Rapinoe’s so far in France, and with attacker Crystal Dunn playing out of position at left-back – albeit quite well – Press’ contributions when defending were paramount in limiting Lionesses winger Nikita Parris and the best right-back at the World Cup, Lucy Bronze.

Both right-sided Dutch players, Shanice van de Sanden and Lineth Beerensteyn, are a handful in one-on-one situations. Right-back Desiree van Lunteren, who played well versus Sweden, is a defensive rock but lacks Bronze’s attacking instincts, meaning Ellis will almost certainly start Rapinoe. If the 33-year-old is lacking fitness, the Dutch could look to exploit her.

Can Van de Donk outclass Ertz?

There’s plenty of star power on an American side with a knack for matching statement victories with choreographed celebrations and headline-worthy quotes. Lost in all that has been the strong play of midfield linchpin Julie Ertz, but the defensive stalwart will meet her stiffest test yet against the Dutch.

With 2017 Footballer of the Year Lieke Martens facing a race for fitness, central creative crux Danielle van de Donk will bear the playmaking responsibilities for Sarina Wiegman’s side. The Arsenal star has formed a stellar rapport with club teammate Vivianne Miedema, and she provided the assist for Jackie Groenen’s match-winner versus Sweden.

With Martens’ status uncertain, and with right-sided attacker Van de Sanden mired in a mercurial spell of form, the pressure will be on Van de Donk to engineer attacks from a central role. Against England, Ertz was stellar at preventing exactly that (something a map of the Lionesses’ first-half touches depicts), so Van de Donk will need to excel for the Netherlands to have a chance.

Dutch defense and the perils of narrow margins

Much is made of the Dutch attack, but quietly, a backline that features center-halves Stefanie van der Gragt and Dominique Bloodworth along with full-backs Merel van Dongen and the aforementioned Van Lunteren has grown throughout the tournament.

Following a strong showing against Germany, Swedish attackers Stina Blackstenius and Sofia Jakobsson were largely stymied by the quartet. Van Lunteren, a midfielder by trade, was particularly stellar in the semis, making seven tackles to go with eight interceptions, the most of any player at the World Cup.

Whether Wiegman sticks with a back-four or opts for Anouk Dekker in a central trio as part of a 5-3-2, the Dutch need to stop the U.S. from extending a streak of goals inside of a dozen minutes. After dumping group foes by a combined 18-0 advantage, the Americans have won their three knockout matches by a goal apiece, and they came close to conceding equalizers against both France and England.

With narrow margins, anything can happen.

The Miedema factor

While eight different goalscorers have boosted the Netherlands’ hopes of winning a second major tournament on the spin – the second-highest amount at this World Cup behind the Americans’ nine – the Leeuwinnen will depend on their star No. 9 to beat the title-holders.

Miedema has built on a record-smashing WSL campaign at the World Cup, bagging three goals in six outings, though there’s still the sense that she – like fellow Dutch star Martens – hasn’t fully hit her stride. With a goal-to-match ratio of 0.75 (61 in 81 international outings), you’d almost expect Miedema to score versus the United States.

Twice the top scorer of Dutch qualifying runs, the nation’s all-time leading markswoman finds the net when it matters. Miedema’s goal in the Euro 2017 semifinal win over England was the difference, as was her brace in the final.

An imposing figure boosted by strong work off the ball, Miedema could profit when marked by the Americans’ central defensive pairing of Abby Dahlkemper and Becky Sauerbrunn.